Post by account_disabled on Jan 1, 2024 21:26:19 GMT -8
Money week column by...Waranthorn Phuthong, Manaswin Thitisombun, Capital Market Business Division Kasikorn Bank Capital Market Business Division Kasikorn Bank views that the baht will fluctuate in the 30.40-30.70 range. The progress of trade negotiations between the United States and China from the meeting between high-level officials between 10-11 October will be an important factor in the currency movement. This week If the negotiations do not reach results as the market previously expected, Will cause the dollar to depreciate. and higher demand for safe assets Including the value of the baht Signs of weakness in the US economy In the past due to the impact of the US-China tariff measures. This is a factor that has caused the market to begin increasing its expectation that the Fed will continue to reduce policy interest rates at this month's meeting.
If the US inflation numbers and US consumer confidence to be announced in a week that came out worse than expected It will be an additional factor supporting the Fed's interest rate reduction. and resulting in the dollar depreciating. During the past week The baht is highly volatile. By the beginning of the week The Telegram Number Data baht depreciated quickly and reached a high of nearly 30.69 late last Monday. In the direction of the weakening yen, however, after the Bank of Thailand reported a higher current account balance than the market expected in August at 3,990 million US dollars, causing the baht to return to strengthen somewhat. Although in the details The high trade surplus driven by imports will be much weaker while exports continue to contract.
In the second half of the week, global economic risks increased. Because of the important economic numbers of the United States that were announced this week were all much weaker, including: (1) The ISM Industrial Purchasing Managers' Index for the US in September reached its lowest level since June 2009, or during the economic crisis. (2) Private sector employment by ADP still increased by just 135,000 jobs in September. Lower than market and employment expectations in the previous month. (3) The ISM US Non-Industrial Purchasing Managers Index is at its lowest level since August 2016, increasing demand for safe haven assets. Especially before the announcement of US non-agricultural employment figures on Friday, causing the baht to close the market at 30.438 on October 4 at 5:30 p.m. Overview of the bond market last week Last week, the bond market received support from the announcement of economic numbers from the United States.
If the US inflation numbers and US consumer confidence to be announced in a week that came out worse than expected It will be an additional factor supporting the Fed's interest rate reduction. and resulting in the dollar depreciating. During the past week The baht is highly volatile. By the beginning of the week The Telegram Number Data baht depreciated quickly and reached a high of nearly 30.69 late last Monday. In the direction of the weakening yen, however, after the Bank of Thailand reported a higher current account balance than the market expected in August at 3,990 million US dollars, causing the baht to return to strengthen somewhat. Although in the details The high trade surplus driven by imports will be much weaker while exports continue to contract.
In the second half of the week, global economic risks increased. Because of the important economic numbers of the United States that were announced this week were all much weaker, including: (1) The ISM Industrial Purchasing Managers' Index for the US in September reached its lowest level since June 2009, or during the economic crisis. (2) Private sector employment by ADP still increased by just 135,000 jobs in September. Lower than market and employment expectations in the previous month. (3) The ISM US Non-Industrial Purchasing Managers Index is at its lowest level since August 2016, increasing demand for safe haven assets. Especially before the announcement of US non-agricultural employment figures on Friday, causing the baht to close the market at 30.438 on October 4 at 5:30 p.m. Overview of the bond market last week Last week, the bond market received support from the announcement of economic numbers from the United States.